On some message boards I frequent, I have seen a couple of posts about how Bush should not be advertising now.

Sorry, but you folks are absolutely wrong.

See, the reason Kerry did not want to accept the nomination until the end of August was monetary. The moment the nomination is accepted, campaign finance limits kick in. That's why Kerry's campaign is going dark for a month, because they know they cannot afford to post advertisements that will spend money needed in October.

Bush, on the other hand, gets the luxury of September 2 to accept, thereby having an extra month to use his PRIMARY donations to spend for advertising. It is a use it or lose it proposition here, so now, in August, it is a perfect time to unleash with the rest of the money he is allowed to use for the primary.

Kerry's campaign is scared of this. They know things are going to turn against their candidate, which is why they need the bump coming out of the convention. Instead, all they are getting is a bump on the head for tripping over their own feet with fiascos like the flubbed pitch and the Oompa Loompa outfit that made Kerry look like a dork. Those are the stories coming out of the convention, and not what they needed.

Kerry has a backup, though. MoveOn, Media Fund, etc. can still put out advertisements. But I think the Republican 527s are about to unleash as well, that no one has paid attention to...the most damaging is already stealing Kerry's thunder, the Swift Boat Vets. Club for Growth, and other groups too have started in, in order to dent MoveOn's compatriots.

Start watching the ads, though. If around the middle of September, the ads surrounding MoveOn's cronies start to shift to attacks against local candidates, you know Kerry's dead in the water.