Here's the 'rub':

Don't believe ANY poll until the election.

Every single poll has a major flaw, and thus every poll is unreliable. That flaw is no one can accurately guess how many Republicans are going to be coming out to vote in relation to the number of Democrats.

Democratic numbers should be the same as 2000. The only 'increase' that could be gained is by the brainwashed youth that have adopted Michael 'McStupid' Moore's tripe as true. However, that age group is notorious for not going out to vote on election day.

Republicans, though, are a mystery. Will the personal attacks by the Democrats bring out Republicans in a backlash? Will the fact Bush sometimes takes moderate positions cause some Republicans to stay home? Will Republicans be mad about how the Democrats acted in 2000 and come out in retaliation? These questions stand unknown at this time.

With these questions, the correct ratio of Republicans to Democrats cannot be garnered. The 'Reagan Democrats' are also going to be a major factor. I honestly think these are the Democrats that are going to swing the election, not some mythical 'Independent' voters. If the Reagan Dems, like Ed Koch and Zell Miller, go to Bush, Kerry's sunk.

In addition, in most states the urban areas are oversampled in polls. This usually means Republicans getting 3 to 5 pct more in the actual election than the poll claims. This happened with Dole vs Clinton, Bush vs Gore, and the midterm elections between those two races and the ones in 2002.

So, ignore the polls. The only poll that counts is November 2nd.